The Outlook for Ukraine

DIPTEL/ANALYSIS

Diplomatic telegrams don’t usually come wth photos. But this one does. All photos by Kim Reczek.

I once worked for the British government in Afghanistan. I was a political officer and part of a counter-insurgency effort in the province of Helmand, once considered a top UK priority. My boss told me that if I could write decent memos they would come to the 'attention of No 10' - his words not mine. And so I started writing diplomatic telegrams.

I was given simple instructions: keep them short - no more than two pages - and make my superiors look good (otherwise no No 10). I no longer have any say in British foreign policy (and probably never did) but I did begin to write diplomatic memos, or at least my version of them. So, following that format, here is my take on the Ukraine war after two weeks in-country.

Summary

1. Ukraine is slowly losing the war. Its single biggest problem is manpower. Military organisation could also be improved. Kyiv is relying on exhausted and demoralised troops. They have more ammunition than this time last year. But without a rollback of Russia's territorial gains Moscow will continue to be incentivised to push west, despite the costs. It is hard to see Trump helping Ukraine. Perhaps he will create so much global chaos that something breaks Kyiv's way. Or a ‘black swan’ event - such as the Prigozhin mutiny - consumes Putin. Barring such developments Ukraine will struggle to fend off Moscow's obsession with controlling it.

Detail

2. Kyiv's forces are holding out in the Kursk enclave in Russia, though they now hold only half of what they did. Elsewhere on the 700-mile frontline the Russians are advancing slowly but steadily, even as they reportedly take 1,000 plus casualties a day. In Kupiansk, east of Kharkiv, which I visited, Moscow's troops have battled their way to within a mile of the city. Elsewhere on the frontline the situation for the defenders is also parlous. Predictions that key towns like Pokrovsk would fall in 2024 have proven premature, but the Russians are advancing slowly westwards towards the Dnipro region. Few predict a total collapse of Ukrainian lines, at least in the first half of this year, but nor do they appear able to stabilise them.

2. The single biggest issue for the Ukraine military is a lack of manpower. But solutions are complicated. While some in the West have urged Kyiv to bring down the age of conscription from 25 to 18 years old, Ukrainians are divided on the issue. Most think the age should come down a little, perhaps a year or two, but there is a general reluctance to bring it down to 18. "I have a 19-year-old nephew," one Ukrainian woman told me. "He's a child. He wouldn't survive on the frontline." Where there is more agreement is that too many men of fighting age are dodging the draft. They hide at home or bribe doctors or officials to exempt them. Tightening the rules sounds like an obvious thing to do. And most support it - in principle. But when it comes to friends and family there is markedly less enthusiasm. I asked one young man in his twenties if he was scared of being called up. "Terrified," he said.

3. Few disagree that the organisation of the Ukrainian military is less than optimal. But transforming a Soviet-style army into a flexible and efficient fighting machine, even as it is under immense pressure, is a big ask. Many say that if policies were more transparent then, for example, a young engineer could volunteer to fight in, say, a drone unit. Or a barrista might offer to become an army cook. Recruitment should be more targeted, they say. The problem, of course, is that everyone wants to be a specialist behind the lines and no one wants to join "the poor bloody infantry."

A market trader selling her wares at a market in Odesa.

4. With a dearth of recruits soldiers that are in the breech are not being allowed home. A soldier-medic, 'Volvo,' spoke for many. He is angry that three years into the war he is not getting any meaningful leave even though he has three children. These men are tired, demoralised and some are struggling psychologically. But they are also some of the most experienced and effective soldiers in the world by now. How can Kyiv both rotate them out and still hold the lines? There’s no easy answer.

5. The lack of ammunition is less critical than it was. While no soldier will ever say he has enough bullets, the Ukrainian army is better off than this time last year, though it is still outgunned. When I visited in April 2024 Republicans in the US Congress were holding up a 60 billion dollar military aid package. A supplemental bill was finally passed soon after that and the ammunition began to arrive. But that hasn’t slowed the pace of the Russian advance. It has only increased.

6. Ukrainians are holding their breath to see what Donald Trump might bring. Many believe that Biden merely kept them on life support. A bully like Trump, the argument goes, is just what is needed to face down a bully like Putin. I have my doubts. First off Trump doesn't seem to care about Ukraine except as it reflects on him. Also Trump has a history of getting along with Putin (and other dictators) but not with Zelensky. Trump may cut a deal with Putin over Kyiv's head if he thinks it will win him accolades. He may decide that just as Panama, Canada and Greenland should belong to the US (or at least dance to its tune), so Ukraine belongs to Moscow. Or he may say that giving money to Ukraine is not in America's interest. Finally he may just decide that the Russo-Ukrainian war can not be mined for his personal benefit. (Last week Trump seemed far more engaged with the collision of a military helicopter and an airline in DC than in either the Ukraine war or the crisis in the Middle East.) I recently met a man who has met Trump many times. Trump will want a win for himself in Ukraine, he said. He will bully Moscow and Kyiv to try and get it. If he can’t he will lose interest.

An old lady in Kyiv. Almost three years into the war Ukraine is beginning to struggle.

7. If - a meaty 'if' - there is a peace deal on the table in 2025 what would it even look like? Many think that security guarantees for Ukraine are more important than regaining lost territory. But if the goal is to halt Russia's advance into eastern Europe I am not so sure. We have to take away the incentive for Russia to start wars. Every time it has done so - Chechnya in 2000, Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 - it has ended up controlling more territory. If the attack on Ukraine is rewarded, the Kremlin will simply pause, mend its tanks, and then send them into battle again. For many Russians a grand national project is more important than a new fridge. Putin knows that. And, though it has come with high costs, Putin has given them that.

Summary

8. For Ukraine right now the future does not look rosy. It is taking the brunt of Russia's attempt to reestablish itself as the regional, and perhaps a global, superpower. Moscow can probably continue fighting at the current tempo for many months, maybe longer. Ukraine, some officials in Kyiv say, will run into trouble if nothing changes by the summer. So far Zelensky has been looking for a masterstroke to shift the trajectory of the war: the 2023 counter-offensive in the south, the 2024 incursion into the Kursk region. But he hasn't found one. Perhaps his best hope is a ‘black swan’ event. They do happen. Covid, the Hamas attack, Prigozhin's mutiny, the fall of Assad to name a few. As regards Trump, perhaps the best hope for Ukrainians is that he sows so much global chaos, that, somehow, inadvertently, he helps them. Maybe with the US behaving like an infant, China becomes the responsible adult in the room, and reins Putin in. Or maybe Europe stops shilly-shallying and gets serious. Slim hopes, I know. But the world is an unpredictable place right now. And maybe somewhere in that unpredictability a chance will emerge for Kyiv to shake off Moscow’s unwanted advances. We can only hope.

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NEWS & LINKS

+ I will soon post on the Battle for School 134, a brutal and mostly-forgotten clash at the beginning of the war that decimated one of Russia’s most storied special forces brigades.

+ We met up with some of the veterans who came on our Wild Bear Vets programme in Canada last summer. More on that soon.