Trump Bombs Iran: What Next?

ANALYSIS/CONTEXT/FALLOUT

Trump addresses the nation after bombing Iran. Credit: NBC News

Twenty-three years ago Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader, told George W Bush that the Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction and only by removing him would Israel and the West be safe.

The US attacked Iraq and ushered in a decade of turmoil and killing that left more than 4,000 Americans and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis dead and led to the rise of ISIS. Netanyahu’s claims were shown to be false.

Last week Netanyahu told Donald Trump that Iran was on the brink of producing a nuclear bomb and only by taking out its nuclear facilities would Israel be safe and a menace to the West removed. Trump obliged and has effectively declared war on Iran.

What happens next is anyone’s guess. But if the Iranian regime, now on the ropes, decides to play dirty the Middle East and the global economy are in for a very rough ride. Weapons experts say that once again Netanyahu’s claims are false. Iran was not on the brink of getting a nuclear bomb.

For any reporter who covered the so-called ‘war on terror’ that was ushered in by the 9/11 attacks on the US, the events unfolding today are almost hauntingly resonant.

Back then Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli leader, insisted that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction and only the urgent decapitation of the Baghdad regime would keep the world safe.

Without Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi leader, he claimed, Israel would be secure and democracy could take root and thrive in the Middle East.

George W Bush, the US president at the time, who had his own ideological and personal reasons for wanting to rid the world of Saddam, parroted Netanyahu’s line.

Washington launched an operation against Baghdad that it called ‘shock and awe’ and the Iraqi regime crumbled quickly.

‘Mission Accomplished’

Saddam went underground – literally – and was later dragged out and hanged. Bush gave a speech to American servicemen in front of a banner that read ‘Mission Accomplished’.

Over the next several years more than 4,400 US servicemen lost their lives trying to pacify Iraq. Somewhere between 150,000 and 600,000 Iraqi civilians were killed in the violence.

Eight years later, under Barack Obama, the Americans pulled out of Iraq. Soon the Islamic State group took over a large part of the country and a new wave of brutality and killings began.

Investigators concluded that not only did Iraq not have weapons of mass destruction, but the US administration, fed a line by the Israelis and their ideological allies in the US, had lied to the public.

The Iranian Threat

The George W Bush presidency is now ancient history. But Benjamin Netanyahu’s is not. And once again the Israeli leader is insisting that only by decapitating a regional rival will Israel be safe and can the Middle East flourish.

Almost every western intelligence estimate, meanwhile, including that of the US, has concluded that, while Iran had certainly been enriching uranium, it had not been attempting to weaponise it.

The Ayatollahs doubtless wanted a nuclear weapon, but the geopolitical cost, they seem to have calculated, was too high. In 2015, after some vigorous haggling, Teheran had signed up to a nuclear deal, the so-called JCPOA.

In exchange for agreeing not to enrich uranium to weapons grade, Iran received some sanctions relief, something its people had been clamouring for. Most countries, but not Israel, applauded the agreement.

By wide consensus the Iranians kept to the deal they had signed. Then in 2018, Trump pulled out of the agreement. Some analysts concluded he was unable to resist torpedoing one of Obama’s signature international successes.

Others said he was doing Israel’s bidding. And so began the slow countdown towards the current war.

Revolutionary Iran - the Early Years

The roots of modern Iran go back to the Islamic revolution in 1979. Fed up with its pro-western leader, Shah Mohammad Reza, who was remote, corrupt and venal, the Iranian people rose up against the state and propelled a cleric, Ayatollah Khomeini, into power.

The Ayatollah brought in Sharia law, and chased the Shah’s brutal secret police, the SAVAK, out of the country. For many Iranians, sick of corruption and oppression, the rise to power of the clerics brought a moment of national hope.

But for the West it was unwelcome news. For decades Iran had provided America and Britain with cheap and reliable oil and, in international politics, often done its bidding. It was also seen as a bulwark against the Soviet Union.

And for the Gulf Arab states – Sunni theocracies that were both western allies and deeply undemocratic – Iran, now calling for the emancipation of downtrodden Muslims of all stripes, was a significant threat. Saudi Arabia was especially alarmed.

Later that year relations between Riyadh and Teheran worsened further. First there was a Shia uprising in the west of Saudi Arabia that was encouraged by the Iranian leadership.

And then Islamic militants seized control of Mecca, demanding an end to western mores that the House of Saud was slowly allowing into the country. The alliance between the conservative Sunni clerics and the Saudi Royal family was shaken to the core.

The Shia uprising was eventually put down and the terror attack contained. But Riyadh, along with western countries which had lost both oil and influence in Iran, now openly sought the overthrow of the Ayatollah.

A Million Dead Iranians

In 1980 Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Arab nationalist, saw a moment of opportunity and launched a war against Iran. The Gulf Arabs and western countries offered money and support.

When Saddam began using poison gas against young Iranian recruits, America looked away. Some European countries even reportedly provided components for the chemical attacks.

Against the odds, and using a brutal novelty tactic - deploying hundreds of thousands of Iranian youths across Iraqi minefields - Iran survived the eight-year war. It even began to advance into Iraq though was never able to fully overcome Saddam’s forces.

By the time the war ended in 1988 Iran had lost up to a million people and hatred of the West was deeply embedded in its political culture.

Iraq invades Kuwait

In 1991 Saddam Hussein, once a darling of the West, invaded neighbouring Kuwait. In response Washington sent a large land force to Iraq’s southern border and bombed its way north, forcing Saddam’s armies to retreat.

But George HW Bush, wary of toppling Saddam and the internecine conflict that might ensue, stopped short of Baghdad and called a ceasefire. Instead the US encouraged the Kurds in the north, and the Shia Muslims in the south, both of whom had been brutalised by Saddam, to rise up.

Believing they now had America at their back, they did. But the US stood by and Saddam’s forces massacred them in their tens of thousands.

For the next decade Saddam stayed in power. The one-time western ally evolved into one of the most brutal tyrants in modern Middle Eastern history. Hundreds of thousands Iraqis died.

After al Qa’eda attacked the US on 9/11, Washington prepared to invade Iraq again, even though most of the militants who attacked America were Saudis.

The reasons Washington gave were that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (untrue) and that Saddam had links with al-Qa’eda (also untrue.)

Modern Iran

In Teheran, meanwhile, as time passed Islamic revolutionary fervour slowly waned and a corrupt and calcified regime took its place. It created a new elite but did little for the millions of ordinary Iranians looking to better their lives.

On the streets of Teheran there were protests against the regime in 2009 and then every couple of years until the present. Each time the authorities clamped down hard.

Teheran, for its part, made hatred of both Israel and the West central to its ideology. It was given plenty of grist for its mill. Israel was violently (and illegally) settling the West Bank, an area of Jordan it had conquered in 1967.

America, meanwhile, was torturing and humiliating Muslim inmates in notorious prisons such as Abu Ghraib in Iraq and at ‘black sites’ around the world. As each scandal came to light anger in the region grew.

The Abraham Accords

After Trump scrapped the nuclear deal with Iran during his first term he began to champion an initiative called the Abraham accords. The idea was to bring Israel and the Gulf Arabs closer together, cement American interests in the Middle East and marginalise its foes.

The big prize was to persuade Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel. The Saudis, for their part, wanted copper-bottomed security guarantees from the US.

But the accords ignored the interests and influence of Iran, still a significant regional power broker. And they assumed the Palestinian issue could be left unresolved and would slowly fade from view.

On 7^th Oct 2023 Hamas attacked Israel and that assumption was blown apart.

Modern Israel

Modern Israel needs no introduction. As I found-out during a trip shortly before the Hamas attacks it is a country that is vibrant, fascinating, deeply rooted in history, and where an apartheid-style system permeates every aspect of society.

There are, effectively, five strata among those who live under Israel’s writ.

In prime place are Jews, who are accorded full citizenship and rights. Then there are Israeli Arabs – Palestinians who live in Israel proper. Next come Palestinians from east Jerusalem who are allowed into the holy city but not beyond. In fourth place are the West Bank Palestinians. And finally the Gazans.

The land west of the Jordan river is populated by about seven million Jews and seven million Palestinians. But the Jews decide everything of consequence. They control, to borrow a phrase, the land ‘from the river to the sea’.

For decades the left and right swapped power in Israel. The national discourse – if you were Jewish – was wide, varied and vibrant. But there was always one central question: what to do about the Palestinians?

For the Israeli left there was a belief that, at some point, there should be a two-state solution. The Palestinians would be given the right to rule themselves on land Israel had occupied in 1967.

In exchange they would agree to sign a peace deal with Israel and acknowledge its right to exist as a Jewish state.

But for the Israeli right – Netanyahu’s camp – the idea of giving land to the Palestinians was always anathema. Even as western pressure on Israel to compromise mounted, the right quietly colonised the West Bank with Israeli settlers.

More nefariously Netanyahu supported Palestinian radicals and especially Hamas. This, he calculated, would keep the Palestinian cause divided, and allow him to stave off demands that he negotiate.

“How can we negotiate with terrorists?” Netanyahu would say time and again.

Oct 7th and Netanyahu

Politically the Oct 7^th attacks were both a disaster and a godsend for Netanyahu.

A disaster because they came about precisely because of his twin policies of oppressing the Palestinians while supporting some of their most militant elements.

And even more so because Netanyahu’s government had failed to predict the attacks and left his citizens poorly-defended. An estimated 1,200 Israelis died in the Hamas attacks.

But a godsend because the killings so polarised the Israeli public that even many who had long disliked Netanyahu were willing to support his brutality against the Palestinians.

According to one recent poll 82 percent of Israelis now believe that Gaza should be partially or completely cleansed of Arabs.

Over the following 21 months the Israelis slowly wiped out the entire Hamas leadership and many thousands of militants. They also killed tens of thousands of women, children and innocents. They bombed hospitals, civic centres and bazaars and blocked food aid.

As a result Netanyahu was charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court.

America’s uncritical support

America, however, remained largely supportive of Israel.

After the 7^th Oct attacks Joe Biden travelled to the Middle East and hugged Netanyahu. Even when innocent Palestinians began to be killed in large numbers there was some shaded criticism from the US administration but weapons continued to flow to Israel.

Then last November Trump won the White House. In 2019 he had described himself as “history's most pro-Israel US president.”

Trump’s sole serious initiative with regards to the ongoing war in Gaza was to suggest that the strip be cleared of its Palestinians and turned into a high-end real estate development.

‘Peacemaker in Chief’

And then, 10 days ago, Israel began bombing Iran. The early signs were that Trump would not join in.

For months he had been selling himself to the world as a man of peace, and to his voters as a president that would not be foolish enough to drag the US into another war, particularly in the Middle East.

But, confounding the predictions, Trump sent B2 bombers which dropped 30,000 pound bombs on Iranian nuclear facilities and storage sites. The targets, he said, had been ‘obliterated’ though experts are less sure.

What next?

What happens next will depend in large part on the actions of Iran’s ruling clerics. Until now they have been a moderately malevolent but also largely contained force.

Now, humiliated and fighting for their survival, they may choose to opt for all-out war.

They could even close the Straights of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes, a move that could double the price of oil and wreak havoc on western economies.

Or the Iranian regime could collapse ushering in a period of instability in a country that has a stranglehold on some of the world’s most important energy producers.

Trump, effectively, has taken a long-standing but non-urgent problem – how to manage Iran’s decades-old nuclear ambitions – and turned it into a red-hot regional crisis with unforeseeable global consequences.

Stay tuned.