Hi Julius…. new here but came via Battleground Ukraine….I was in Kyiv for 3 weeks recently, but I am no expert.
Not sure the Molotov/Ribbentrop comparison is right. US has no plans to take any part of Ukraine. The mining/mineral rights idea is almost total fantasy.
It takes decades for a mine to come online…. longer than any horizon that Trump has in mind.
US mining stocks haven’t moved on any of this news. They don’t have the capacity to start large scale operations in another continent. The US could demand licenses for other operators, like Rio Tinto, but the public opprobrium attached would be high and shareholders would almost certainly object. U.S. mining stock prices haven’t moved on any of this news. They are at the same prices as they were in mid-2021
Ukraine’s mineral exports are around $5 billion. Companies would have to assume large price or production increases to see a 100x return in anyone’s lifetime. If Trump keeps throwing out numbers like $500 bn, eventually someone will explain that the returns don’t add up. I know we think there are no more adults left in any room, but the realities are that the mineral angle is a very long proposition, and I don’t think U.S. companies are enthralled by the idea.
I also find the events of the last week depressing. Trump’s methods are crude, but the bluster soon turns to another target. He loses interest quickly and capitulates quietly…the 2017 tariffs for example, or Mexico, Canada and Columbia recently. But Ukraine may hold more cards than it seems right now. The EU may come through. China may also want the mineral deals & could offer a much better deal. Then the power dynamic changes very quickly.
Hi Christian, Thanks for your comment. I'm no expert on mining and have read many different opinions. Some say that Ukraine is sitting on trillions of dollars of worth of minerals, others that they hardly have any. Either way I think it's fair to say that Trump's approach to Ukraine is neo-colonial and probably predatory. The Molotov-Ribbentrop analogy would not necessarily mean American boots on the ground, or formally annexing western Ukraine in the way that Russia has annexed parts of eastern Ukraine, but rather turning it into an economic colony. I hope that Trump's attention will move on but I fear that Putin is outplaying him and will find ways to use the US to help Russia's cause. That's already happening. It's true that as of now the Palestinians are still in Gaza and Ukraine has not mortgaged itself to Washington, but I fear both eventualities.
Julius, you came forward with two options when talking about how Russia and U.S. could divide Ukraine (and probably Europe), I would not exclude a third option: that Transcarpathia would be handed over to Hungary for its long-time support to Putin and Trump. Orban is dreaming of turning Hungary into a "middle power" (or creating Greater Hungary) which is difficult to realise with his neighbouring competitors in Romania, Serbia and Slovakia, but with annexing Transcarpathia a first step would be done.
It's true that the world is moving quickly and things that were unimaginable are now becoming likely or are even happening. But I still don't see Hungary grabbing territories. For one only countries with the heft of the US, China and Russia get to do that and ride out the consequences in the modern world. Secondly the facts on the ground are not in Hungary's favour: there are probably less than 100,000 ethnic Hungarians left in Ukraine and Kyiv's military capability far outweighs that of Budapest. I have been to Transcarpathia half a dozen times since the war began and studied the issue closely, and I think there could be trouble there in the pipeline, but doubt Budapest will make a land grab. I could be wrong of course!
I am not talking about that Hungary would attack and occupy Transcarpathia, but if one of the two options you outlined would be realised, Russia and USA might hand over Transcarpathia to Hungary. Ukraine wouldnt exist anymore as an independent state. Who would stand up against it? EU? China? And people in Transcarpathia, irrespective of the ethnicity might be prefer being under Hungarian rule than under Russian rule. Many in Transcarpathia - and not only ethnic Hungarians or Roma - have already Hungarian passports. Only between 2011 and beginning of 2015, 94.000 persons received Hungarian citizenship. Since then Hungary didnt publish new data anymore (or I couldnt find them). Anyhow, it is one of several scenarios and who knows what will happen ...
No, I don't piti Ukraine.
They are not going to take a bad deal, they are going to keep fighting.
Also they are not alone Europe and UK will support them and Ukraine has agency.
Don't write off Ukraine and Europe so soon, they both have something to fight for.
I have spent a lot of time in Ukraine and have nothing but admiration for their will to resist. I hope you are right!
just when the front lines seem to be stabilizing done, the US clocks Ukraine on the back of the head.
Hi Julius…. new here but came via Battleground Ukraine….I was in Kyiv for 3 weeks recently, but I am no expert.
Not sure the Molotov/Ribbentrop comparison is right. US has no plans to take any part of Ukraine. The mining/mineral rights idea is almost total fantasy.
It takes decades for a mine to come online…. longer than any horizon that Trump has in mind.
US mining stocks haven’t moved on any of this news. They don’t have the capacity to start large scale operations in another continent. The US could demand licenses for other operators, like Rio Tinto, but the public opprobrium attached would be high and shareholders would almost certainly object. U.S. mining stock prices haven’t moved on any of this news. They are at the same prices as they were in mid-2021
Ukraine’s mineral exports are around $5 billion. Companies would have to assume large price or production increases to see a 100x return in anyone’s lifetime. If Trump keeps throwing out numbers like $500 bn, eventually someone will explain that the returns don’t add up. I know we think there are no more adults left in any room, but the realities are that the mineral angle is a very long proposition, and I don’t think U.S. companies are enthralled by the idea.
I also find the events of the last week depressing. Trump’s methods are crude, but the bluster soon turns to another target. He loses interest quickly and capitulates quietly…the 2017 tariffs for example, or Mexico, Canada and Columbia recently. But Ukraine may hold more cards than it seems right now. The EU may come through. China may also want the mineral deals & could offer a much better deal. Then the power dynamic changes very quickly.
Hi Christian, Thanks for your comment. I'm no expert on mining and have read many different opinions. Some say that Ukraine is sitting on trillions of dollars of worth of minerals, others that they hardly have any. Either way I think it's fair to say that Trump's approach to Ukraine is neo-colonial and probably predatory. The Molotov-Ribbentrop analogy would not necessarily mean American boots on the ground, or formally annexing western Ukraine in the way that Russia has annexed parts of eastern Ukraine, but rather turning it into an economic colony. I hope that Trump's attention will move on but I fear that Putin is outplaying him and will find ways to use the US to help Russia's cause. That's already happening. It's true that as of now the Palestinians are still in Gaza and Ukraine has not mortgaged itself to Washington, but I fear both eventualities.
Thanks....yes, agree....news hasn't improved in last 48 hours.
Julius, you came forward with two options when talking about how Russia and U.S. could divide Ukraine (and probably Europe), I would not exclude a third option: that Transcarpathia would be handed over to Hungary for its long-time support to Putin and Trump. Orban is dreaming of turning Hungary into a "middle power" (or creating Greater Hungary) which is difficult to realise with his neighbouring competitors in Romania, Serbia and Slovakia, but with annexing Transcarpathia a first step would be done.
It's true that the world is moving quickly and things that were unimaginable are now becoming likely or are even happening. But I still don't see Hungary grabbing territories. For one only countries with the heft of the US, China and Russia get to do that and ride out the consequences in the modern world. Secondly the facts on the ground are not in Hungary's favour: there are probably less than 100,000 ethnic Hungarians left in Ukraine and Kyiv's military capability far outweighs that of Budapest. I have been to Transcarpathia half a dozen times since the war began and studied the issue closely, and I think there could be trouble there in the pipeline, but doubt Budapest will make a land grab. I could be wrong of course!
I am not talking about that Hungary would attack and occupy Transcarpathia, but if one of the two options you outlined would be realised, Russia and USA might hand over Transcarpathia to Hungary. Ukraine wouldnt exist anymore as an independent state. Who would stand up against it? EU? China? And people in Transcarpathia, irrespective of the ethnicity might be prefer being under Hungarian rule than under Russian rule. Many in Transcarpathia - and not only ethnic Hungarians or Roma - have already Hungarian passports. Only between 2011 and beginning of 2015, 94.000 persons received Hungarian citizenship. Since then Hungary didnt publish new data anymore (or I couldnt find them). Anyhow, it is one of several scenarios and who knows what will happen ...