In the last several weeks Donald Trump’s much-vaunted claim that he will bring peace to Ukraine has come to nothing, even as he has encouraged Moscow’s expansionist instincts and attempted to bully Kyiv into signing over a large share of its mineral, oil and gas wealth to a US-controlled fund.
All is not lost for Ukraine. The British and German governments have promised fresh military aid. The Ukrainians themselves are producing ever more of their own weapons. Nevertheless Trump’s manouevrings have left Ukraine seriously weakened. Here is a summary of where things currently stand.
Summary
1. Moscow is unleashing large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities. The Trump administration is pushing Ukraine to sign a minerals, oil and gas deal on worse terms than ever. US Envoy Steve Witkoff visits Moscow but still shows no sign of understanding the issues he is negotiating. Donald Trump, meanwhile, is growing impatient but offers no hint of a strategy to end the war. Putin, for his part, is happy to bask in the limelight but has made no concessions. Fighting on the frontline continues unabated. Trump’s tariff policy chaos is, ironically, presenting the biggest headache for Moscow as global oil prices fall. We are back to the status quo ante: two ticking clocks – one in Kyiv, the other in Moscow – though now, thanks to Trump, with a clearer Russian advantage.
Detail
2. Moscow, growing ever more confident, has unleashed large-scale attacks on Ukrainian cities. Yesterday it targeted the centre of Sumy in the north-east of Ukraine as locals were gathering to celebrate Palm Sunday. Two ballistic missiles crashed into crowded streets killing 32 civilians, including two children, and injuring many dozens. The attack came 10 days after the Russians struck Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of Volodymyr Zelensky, in an attack that killed 18, including nine children. The strikes, which fly in the face of Putin’s assurances that he is keen for peace, come amid growing optimism in Moscow that Kyiv is now on the back foot.
3. The Trump administration is pushing Ukraine hard to sign the worst minerals deal yet on offer, an agreement that would pledge half of the national income from oil, gas, minerals and some other state assets goes to a US-controlled fund until such a time as Ukraine has paid back the aid it received from the Biden administration plus four percent annual interest. In exchange Ukraine will potentially get…. almost nothing. Still smarting from the caustic reception that he received in the White House, Volodymyr Zelensky has not explicitly said no. But Kyiv is attempting to water down the deal. It has put aside nearly $2 million to pay for American lawyers to represent its interests in the negotiations. Of note is that lesser US demands two months ago caused international consternation and outrage. Today they barely raise an eyebrow.
4. Steve Witkoff, the US real estate billionaire friend of Trump’s who is now envoy to Moscow, the Middle East, and Iran, continues to meet Putin, presumably in the hope that he will agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. Following his notorious interview with right-wing chat show host Tucker Carlson, in which Witkoff showered Putin with praise, he still seems to have a risibly poor understanding of the issues at hand and continues to parrot Moscow’s talking points. Witkoff’s claim that the residents of Russian-occupied Ukraine were ethnic Russians who had ‘voted’ to join Russia appears all the more egregious as fresh evidence is emerging that the Kremlin is banning the use of Ukrainian textbooks in occupied areas, locking up those that speak out against Moscow, and forcing locals to take up Russian passports.
5. Even as Trump expresses impatience there is still no evidence he has anything akin to a plan for bringing peace between Russia and Ukraine. Amid the drama and theatrics, the US has fielded rank amateurs to deal with the toughest and most experienced negotiating team that the Kremlin can muster. There are still no known policy initiatives by Washington to address the detail of a peace process, let alone a final peace.
6. Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, is happy to talk but is yet to offer a single meaningful concession on Ukraine. He appeared to accept a ceasefire in the Black Sea, but then added that sanctions would have to be lifted against Russia in exchange. He has stepped up attacks on Ukrainian cities even as he talks about a halt to air strikes on civilians and infrastructure. Putin is, for now at least, continuing to wage all-out war.
7. The fighting on the frontline continues apace. Russia appears to be readying for a spring offensive in north-east Ukraine. Even so, for now, Ukraine’s forces are holding the Russians at bay. This is thanks, in part, to the dominance of drone warfare which heavily favours defence over attack.
8. Meanwhile, ironically, an unpredicted threat to Russia has come from Trump’s tariff policy. Russia itself has not been targeted by tariffs (though Ukraine has). But Trump’s gyrations have dramatically raised fears of a global recession and so brought down the price of oil by more than 10 percent. This has left Russia with a big hole in its 2025 budget. Even in Moscow officials have been warning that with the price of oil so low Russian state expenditure could be badly squeezed in the second half of the year.
Comment
9. As with his economic policy, so with his diplomacy: despite Trump’s boastfulness and bragging his administration is proving both predatory and grossly incompetent with regards to the Ukraine-Russia war. Even if we believe that Trump’s aims are noble - he claims he wants to stop the war to save lives – the style, manner and execution of his initiatives are so inept that they have, if anything, made peace less, not more, likely.
My analysis is that Trump is not motivated by trying to save lives. If saving lives had been a concern he would not have closed USAID, an organisation that saved tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands of lives around the world at a bargain price. More likely Trump is after baubles and accolades. Whatever his motivation he is failing to move the needle on the chance of even a temporary cease-fire, never mind a lasting peace.
Putin, a far more wily and competent operator, seems to have weighed both Trump’s towering vanity and love of the superficial, as well as the amateurism of the hapless and callow Witkoff, and decided he can play them both like a fiddle. Again, were the stakes not so high, the sight of the world’s only superpower being outwitted and mocked by a rogue actor with an economy less than half the size of California’s, would be comedic. But the images of the bodies on the streets of Sumy are only the latest reminder of the cost in human suffering from all this amateurism and ineptitude.
In terms of the Ukraine-Russia war, we are effectively back to the status of late 2024 but with the Kremlin having received a significant boost. Ukraine is slowly running out of the resources it needs to fight, while Russia is slowly running out of the money it needs to keep its war machine humming. Which tank runs dry first is still uncertain. But Trump’s maladroit, splenetic and predatory interventions have worsened Ukraine’s position.
Great summary. Thanks. And I learned two new words (that I can apply to this administration): hapless and callow.
Thank you ... No Frills! ... This is how it is ... sadly ... with an empty shell running the US and all that brings for those who rely on today's supposedly super power! Here comes China! ... Jude